Beiyang Dream

Chapter 49 Victory depends on who can endure hardship?

Thursday, April 6, 1890. Berlin, Prussian War Academy, Operations Room No. 4.

Chang Desheng sat by the window, holding a white porcelain coffee cup in his hand.

He took a sip and thought to himself: The coffee in this War Academy doesn't taste much better than the instant coffee I drink when I'm working overtime!

The long table in the operations room was filled with people on both sides—eight trainees and several German instructors.

At this moment, "Teacher Xiao Mao" at the top of the table stood up and spoke.

"Gentlemen, the first phase of the simulation is complete. Today, we will not discuss specific troop deployments or tactical details. We will only discuss one thing..."

He paused, his gaze sweeping across Chang Desheng and Tojo Hidekichi's faces.

"logic!"

"Please have the representatives from both sides explain the logical essence of their respective plans," Moltke said. "But there is a rule—you should try to explain from the perspective of the role you are playing... For an elite staff officer of the General Staff, thinking from the perspective of the opponent and formulating hypothetical plans are essential skills."

Chang Desheng's eyelid twitched.

This "Teacher Mao" is quite the talker. He's clearly stirring up trouble, yet he makes it sound so righteous. No wonder he was able to become the Chief of the General Staff in history!

......

The first to speak was Hideaki Tojo.

The Japanese man, who was shaped like an tar barrel, stood up, bowed slightly to the German teachers, and then turned to face Chang Desheng—but he wasn't looking at Chang Desheng; he was looking at the huge map of the Korean Peninsula in the middle of the table.

"If I were the commander of the Qing army," Tojo Hideaki began in Prussian-accented German, "if Seoul were suddenly threatened by the main force of the Japanese army, I would abandon Seoul..."

Chang Desheng's hand, which was holding a coffee cup, froze in mid-air.

"The Qing army's advantage in Korea lies not in its manpower, its firearms, or even its navy..." Tojo Hideaki's finger traced across the map, from Incheon to Seoul, and then from Seoul to Pyongyang, "...in its suzerainty, in its century-old accumulated power, and in the fear in the hearts of the Koreans, especially their fear of the Qing cavalry!"

He raised his eyes and looked at Chang Desheng, who was somewhat dazed.

I was so proud of myself!

Chang, I've already revealed your hand, haven't I?

He continued, "The Huai Army cavalry were a political symbol in Korea. They didn't need to win; they just needed to appear. They appeared in Jeolla Province, Gyeongsang Province, Chungcheong Province. Every time they appeared, they were telling the local Korean officials: The Qing Dynasty is still here, the royal army is still here, and if you dare to surrender to Japan, you'll be punished later!"

The blockage in Chang Desheng's mind was suddenly cleared up.

His previous concept of a "war of attrition" was a "static war" of trenches, barbed wire, machine guns, and mortars—a military war of attrition. But Tojo Hideaki's words pointed to a different path...

"This is a damn scheme where the contractor has to pay for everything upfront!" Chang Desheng muttered to himself. "The cavalry are the project managers, the North Korean officials are the contractors, and the North Korean civilians are the workers... The contractors and the workers have to cover the costs together..."

"Therefore," Tojo Hideaki tapped his finger three times on the map, "I will escort the King of Korea to Pyongyang for a northern exile. In the King's name, I will issue an edict to support the emperor. Then, I will send cavalry squads to escort pro-Qing officials to the eight provinces to establish anti-Japanese regimes."

He spoke very slowly, enunciating each word clearly, his expression completely unchanged, as if he already had a plan for any possible countermeasures from the Qing army.

"Every time the Japanese army occupied a place, they had to divide their troops to defend it, suppress rebellions, and appease the people. Meanwhile, the Qing army used Korean grain to support Korean soldiers, endlessly draining Japan's national strength."

He paused, then added one last sentence:

"This kind of battlefield is just a quagmire."

......

There was silence in the conference room.

Chang Desheng put down his coffee cup.

His mind was in turmoil.

Cavalry... can be used like this?

It's not about charging into battle, it's about showing off.

It wasn't to kill enemy troops, but rather to serve as a mobile facade for the Celestial Empire.

This would transform the Qing Dynasty's war of attrition into a war of attrition in Korea...

He looked up at Hideki Tojo.

"Excellent," Chang Desheng thought to himself, "I need to remember this tactic... It doesn't necessarily have to involve cavalry. The key is to contract out the 'major project' of fighting the Japanese devils to Korean officials and civilians, and then let them fund the war effort themselves. Brilliant, absolutely brilliant..."

......

Now, it's Changde's turn to win.

He stood up, nodded to the German instructors, and then turned to face Hideaki Tojo.

"If I were the commander of the Japanese army," Chang Desheng began, his voice more steady than he had expected, "I would secretly assemble a fleet while maintaining diplomatic deception. Under the guise of protecting overseas Chinese and civilians, I would launch a landing at Incheon."

"Then," he paused, "speed was of the essence in war, a surprise attack on Seoul without declaration of war!"

He saw Hideki Tojo's breathing pause for a moment.

"With our most elite regiments, march straight for Seoul. Don't linger outside the city; at any cost, breach the city and capture the king." Chang Desheng stared into Tojo's eyes. "The purpose of war is not to kill the enemy, but to subjugate their country. Capturing their king will throw the country into chaos; controlling their capital will prevent their orders from being obeyed."

Hideaki Tojo lowered his eyes and stared intently at the table.

He held a pencil in his hand, the tip of which was jabbing heavily into the paper.

Chang Desheng sneered inwardly.

Go ahead and tap it.

The more you poke, the more panicked you are.

"After taking control of the king," Chang Desheng continued, "we immediately supported a pro-Japanese regime and signed the 'Reform Treaty,' thereby legally dismantling Qing China's suzerainty over Korea."

He paused, then added the last sentence in Chinese:

"This is a classic case of 'capture the king first'!"

......

The meeting room fell even quieter.

It was so quiet you could hear your own heartbeat.

Chang Desheng sat down. He picked up his now-cold coffee and took another sip. It was bitter, but very refreshing.

Across the table, Hideaki Tojo was still looking down at the black dot he had poked out with a pencil.

What is he thinking?

Chang Desheng could guess it.

"Undeclared war" and "capture the city and seize the king"—these were the most risky and potentially decisive tactics that the radical faction in the Japanese military privately discussed.

Historically, they did just that, and they succeeded!

The slow-witted Beiyang Army and Yuan Shikai simply watched as a mixed brigade of Japanese troops marched into Seoul... In fact, from the moment the Japanese army entered Seoul, the First Sino-Japanese War was already half lost.

But now, this risky plan, which had not even been formulated by the Japanese military headquarters, was spoken word by word by a Qing Dynasty Beiyang Army student in the operations room in Berlin.

If the Qing Dynasty had prepared for this in advance... what would Japan have done?

Will they take more radical measures?

Being more radical means greater risk and an easier time losing battles!

......

It was Moltke the Younger who broke the silence.

The guy who had successfully instigated the conflict leaned back in his chair, crossed his arms over his stomach, and scanned back and forth between Chang Desheng and Tojo Hidekichi's faces.

"Interesting," he said, a hint of amusement in his voice. "Both of you seem to believe that the outcome of this war hinges on the fate of Seoul and the Joseon king. However... this war won't end after just one battle. Isn't that right?"

Chang Desheng and Tojo Hideki nodded almost simultaneously.

Since both sides anticipated each other's actions, there's little chance of a quick resolution...

In the conference room, all the German officers, including field officers Moltke, Goltz, and Hindenburg, as well as Lieutenant General Brauchitsch, the director of the War College, looked up at the two Easterners.

They all understood that what they were witnessing was not a deduction, nor an assignment.

Rather, it is a preview of the future.

This is the most likely scenario for future wars in East Asia.

"Then," Moltke sat up straight, placed his hands on the table, and leaned forward, "if the war, as you two have predicted, has entered its second phase..."

He paused, his gaze sharp.

"If the Qing Dynasty successfully establishes a foothold in Pyongyang and attempts to drag the entire Korean peninsula into a war of attrition, while Japan tries to extend the war to the Qing mainland and even threaten its capital..."

he asks:

Who is more likely to win the final victory? And why?

Chang Desheng cursed inwardly, "This question is fucking insane! Is Mao Qi really just looking for trouble?"

They even went so far as to suggest that "Japan was attempting to extend the war to the Qing Dynasty's homeland..."

However, this also shows that the Germans have seriously considered "betting" on the Qing Dynasty, or rather, the Beiyang warlords...

He cleared his throat and spoke first.

"Your Excellency," Chang Desheng said, "the outcome of a war of attrition does not depend on firearms, the fleet, or even the commanders."

He paused and looked at Little Moltke.

"It depends on the nation, or rather, the people's ability to bear the suffering brought about by war."

Moltke raised an eyebrow.

"To assess resilience, one needs to understand history," Chang Desheng continued. "In the Taiping Rebellion thirty years ago, our country lost more than 100 million people. The war lasted for fourteen years, and the imperial court eventually quelled the rebellion. In Japan, at the end of the Tokugawa Shogunate, the Satsuma-Choshu alliance fought a single battle at Karabu-Fushimi, and the Shogunate samurai collapsed."

He looked at Hideki Tojo.

"Which of these two systems is better able to withstand the pain and losses of a protracted war?"

Hideki Tojo remained silent.

But Chang Desheng saw a cold smile creep onto his lips.

"Therefore," Chang Desheng turned his gaze back to the German "clients," "the essence of a war of attrition is a contest of national strength and will. Japan might gain the upper hand in the first round with a surprise attack. But dragging the war into the second and third rounds..."

He paused, speaking slowly and deliberately:

"Victory will inevitably belong to the side that can endure more hardship and shed more blood! And 400 million people certainly have more endurance and the capacity to sustain the effort than 40 million people!"

He sat down.

His words have been made very clear.

China is a giant, perhaps clumsy, perhaps slow, but thick-skinned and resilient. Japan is an assassin, perhaps sharp and agile, but lacking follow-up; if it misses its first strike, it grows weaker with each attack.

What he wanted the Germans to believe was this principle... although it wasn't entirely true.

......

Hideaki Tojo stood up.

He first bowed to the German instructors, then turned to Chang Desheng.

"Your Excellency," his voice was still deep, but with a sharper edge, "history has also proven that when the Qing government suffered direct attacks in its core areas, it would quickly seek compromise."

He raised his eyes and looked at Chang Desheng.

"In the First Opium War, British troops approached Nanjing, and the Qing court sued for peace. In the Second Opium War, the Allied forces invaded Beijing, the emperor fled north, and the Qing court again sued for peace."

He paused, then added:

"This is not a matter of the nation's capacity to bear it, but a matter of the rulers' resolve."

Chang Desheng cursed under his breath.

Those Japanese guys really know how to hit a nerve.

"When the flames of war spread to Zhili, threatening the foundations of the Aisin Gioro family's rule," Tojo Hide continued, "their priority would be preserving the imperial court, not the country's territory."

He looked at the German instructor.

"During the Meiji Restoration in Japan, the whole nation was united, the Emperor shared weal and woe with the people, and the national will was as firm as a rock. In contrast, the Qing Dynasty was ruled by a small number of Manchu nobles who controlled hundreds of millions of Han people. Their primary goal was to maintain their privileged rule."

He paused, then added with a hint of sarcasm:

"If the war of attrition continues, will the Han Chinese in the country always be willing to shed blood and sacrifice for the Manchu court? And the internal contradictions of the Qing Dynasty will probably erupt due to the defeat in foreign wars."

He finished speaking and sat down.

The meeting room was completely silent.

The German officers were either frowning, deep in thought, or exchanging glances.

Chang Desheng's words make a lot of sense.

Hideaki Tojo's words also make sense.

One is talking about the resilience of "nation" and "ethnicity".

One is talking about the tolerance of the "court" and the "ruler".

Who is right?

do not know.

However, one thing is certain: these two Eastern cadets are both outstanding soldiers.

......

Chang Desheng then stood up again.

"Sir," he said, looking at Moltke and the other German instructors, "what Tojo said makes sense. But there is one point he may have overlooked."

"Oh?" Little Moltke raised his eyes.

"Whether Japan can invade Zhili and threaten Beijing," Chang Desheng said, emphasizing each word, "does not depend on Japan's determination, Zhili's defense, or even the Qing Dynasty's will to resist."

He paused, letting each word sink in.

"It depends on the will of the British Empire."

The meeting room was so quiet you could hear a pin drop.

"What Britain and France can do," Chang Desheng said coldly, "Japan cannot do."

He looked at Hideki Tojo.

"Because the balance of power in the Far East was the bottom line for the British Empire. If Japan wanted to replicate the story of the Anglo-French alliance, the first question it should ask was not whether the Qing Dynasty was accurate, but whether London was accurate."

He turned his gaze back to the German instructor.

"And as long as Beijing is not threatened," he concluded, "the Qing Dynasty's capacity to endure the pain of war is virtually limitless."

He's finished speaking.

He sat down.

I picked up the coffee cup and found that he had already finished drinking it.

He put down his cup, thinking: Well, I've said what I needed to say. Whether you invest or not is up to you.